Iran: More unrest and arrests; the republic’s three decades of history; and questioning what next

Below are clips from article analyzing the current situation in Iran. For hourly updates on events, you can visit Nico Pitney’s blog at the Huffington Post or the New York Time’s the Lede.

 

Ahmadinejad Slams Obama; 70 Professors Arrested; Wednesday Protest Violently Attacked

Juan Cole – Informed Comment

The BBC is reporting that a victory celebration by the Iranian elite to which 300 prominent persons were invited ended up being poorly attended, with 105 guests not showing up.

[...]The LAT reports that 70 professors have been arrested in Iran for meeting with Mir Hosain Mousavi, the opposition leader who alleges that the vote in the recent presidential election was rigged. The report in Persian is here. They are members of the Islamic Association of University Teachers.

Hundreds of rock-throwing demonstrators tried to gather in downtown Tehran on Wednesday afternoon, but they met a phalanx of determined security forces who dispersed them by main force. Some 1,000 protesters were said to have gathered near the parliament building before allegedly being attacked.

Opposition leader Mir Hosain Mousavi’s web site denied that he was under house arrest, as some observers had alleged, but acknowledged that he was under surveillance. He vowed to continue to attend peaceful rallies. His wife, Zahra Rahnevard, said at the web site that Iran had descended into “martial law.”

Miscalculations Abound in Iran

Shahir Shahidsaless – Asia Times

Even the disputed results of the election show that Mousavi had the support of 14 million people. This is a grassroots movement for change in Iran. Among this 14 million people, prominent intellectuals, writers, artists, university students, professors and educated and young urbanites are distinguishable. Crushing the protests equates to suppressing a large section of society, leaving people with utmost rage and deep resentment towards the system.

Amazingly, the same miscalculation applies to the Mousavi camp. Their evaluation of the current events as people versus the dictator has flaws, as does Khamenei’s and the ruling elite’s perception of the Islamic umma (nation) against “dust and dirt”, as implied by Ahmadinejad.

Why the Islamic Republic Has Survived

Ervand Abarhimian – The Middle East Report

[Nima: The below article does not directly address the crisis following Iran's June 12 presidential election, however it does claim to speak to economic and political reasons for the Islamic Republic's survivability in the past 30 years.]

In three decades the regime has come close to eliminating illiteracy among the post-revolutionary generations, reducing the overall rate from 53 percent to 15 percent.[1] The rate among women has fallen from 65 percent to 20 percent. The state has increased the number of students enrolled in primary schools from 4,768,000 to 5,700,000, in secondary schools from 2.1 million to over 7.6 million, in technical schools from 201,000 to 509,000, and in universities from 154,000 to over 1.5 million. The percentage of women in university student populations has gone up from 30 percent to 62 percent. Thanks to medical clinics, life expectancy at birth has increased from 56 to 70, and infant mortality has decreased from 104 to 25 per 1,000. Also thanks to medical clinics, the birth rate has fallen from an all-time high of 3.2 to 2.1, and the fertility rate—the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime—from 7 to 3. It is expected to fall further to 2 by 2012—in other words, Iran in the near future will achieve near zero population growth.

[...]Upcoming decades will test the regime’s ability to juggle the competing demands of these populist programs with those of the educated middle class—especially the ever expanding army of university graduates produced, ironically, by one of the revolution’s main achievements. This new stratum needs not only jobs and a decent standard of living but also greater social mobility and access to the outside world—with all its dangers, especially to well-protected home industries—and, concomitantly, the creation of a viable civil society. The regime may be able to meet these formidable demands if it finds fresh sources of oil and gas revenues—but to do so it will need to markedly improve its relations with Washington so that economic sanctions can be lifted. Without the lifting of sanctions, Iran cannot gain access to the technology and capital needed to develop its large gas reserves. If new revenues do not materialize, class politics will threaten to rear its head again. For 30 years, populism has managed to blunt the sharp edge of class politics. It may not do so in the future.

A Way Forard

Muhammad Sahimi – Tehran Bureau

The question now is how Mr. Mousavi and the reformists should go forward.

First, any sensible strategy must take into account the realities of Iran and the world today. This is not 1978 or 79; it is not the time of the Cold War when Iran’s neighbor to the north was the Soviet Union. The bipolar nature of the international community at that time, and in particular the West’s support for Iran and the Shah, guaranteed Iran’s territorial integrity. The situation is very different today.

(First published at Rabble.ca)

Iran: a deeper look at post-election events

Below are some excerpts from articles on Iran that provde some further depth and analysis. I suggest reading the complete articles by clicking on each title.

 

History suggest the coup will fail

Patrick Cockburn – The Independent

[Nima: This article provides some much needed historical background]

The methods of protest are very similar [to the 1979 Iranian revolution]. This is hardly surprising because the demonstrators seeking to get rid of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad understandably hope the type of unarmed mass protest that worked against the Shah will succeed again. Mass rally and public martyrdom are part of the Iranian revolutionary tradition, just as the barricade is part of the tradition in France. A difference between 1978-9 and today is that the Iranian government has no intention of letting history repeat itself.

Nor is it likely to do so. The Iranian revolution was carried out by a broad coalition from right to left which had religious conservatives at one end and Marxist revolutionaries at the other. The Shah and his regime had a unique ability to alienate simultaneously different parts of the Iranian population which had nothing in common. His cruel but poorly informed Savak security men convinced themselves that communists and revolutionary leftists were the danger to the throne and not the Shia clergy. They were not alone in their delusion. President Jimmy Carter recalls an August 1978 CIA memo, drafted five months before the Shah took flight, firmly concluding that Iran “is not in a revolutionary or even a pre-revolutionary situation”.

 

Iran’s crisis: The opposition weighs its options

Tony Karon – Time

[Nima: In the complete version of this article, Karon writes that former president Rafsanjani has called for a united opposition political bloc to face Ahmadinejad. I believe that it was in fact one of Rafsanjani's close allies who made this call.]

Parliament will not be decisive, but it could be significant in any longer term strategy of an opposition movement that claims the mantle of the Islamic Revolution. It must approve the president’s budget, and it has the power to impeach him. It must also approve and can dismiss cabinet ministers — as Ahmadinejad discovered in 2005, when the legislature rejected his first three nominees for oil minister, and again late last year when it fired his Interior Minister for faking a degree from Oxford University.

Currently, Ahmadinejad’s own coalition controls 117 of the 290 seats in the majlis, while the reformists control 46 and pragmatic conservatives aligned with Rafsanjani and Mousavi have 53. Five seats are reserved for religious minorities, and 69 are in the hands of independents, among whom the opposition will presumably be lobbying hard for support against the president.

Whatever happens in the streets in the coming days, the opposition to Ahmadinejad, which has one foot deep inside the regime and the other in civil society, may be girding for a long-term campaign against the president’s power grab. The end result is likely to be some form of compromise between what remain factions of the same regime — albeit factions with increasingly catastrophic differences. But the question that will be in play in the weeks and months ahead is which side will have to give up more.

 

Washington and the Iran rotests: Would they be allowed in the US?

Juan Cole – Informed Comment

The fact is that despite the bluster of the American Right that Something Must be Done, the United States is not a neutral or benevolent player in Iran. Washington overthrew the elected government of Iran in 1953 over oil nationalization, and installed the megalomaniac and oppressive Mohammad Reza Pahlevi, who gradually so alienated all social classes in Iran that he was overthrown in a popular revolution in 1978-1979. The shah had a national system of domestic surveillance and tossed people in jail for the slightest dissidence, and was supported to the hilt by the United States government. So past American intervention has not been on the side of let us say human rights.

More recently, the US backed the creepy and cult-like Mojahedin-e Khalq (People’s Holy Warriors or MEK), which originated in a mixture of communist Stalinism and fundamentalist Islam. The MEK is a terrorist organization and has blown things up inside Iran, so the Pentagon’s ties with them are wrong in so many ways.

[...]Moreover, very unfortunately, US politicians are no longer in a position to lecture other countries about their human rights. The kind of unlicensed, city-wide demonstrations being held in Tehran last week would not be allowed to be held in the United States. Senator John McCain led the charge against Obama for not having sufficiently intervened in Iran. At the Republican National Committee convention in St. Paul, 250 protesters were arrested shortly before John McCain took the podium. Most were innocent activists and even journalists. Amy Goodman and her staff were assaulted. In New York in 2004, ‘protest zones’ were assigned, and 1800 protesters were arrested, who have now been awarded civil damages by the courts.

 

Iran’s clash of ‘titans’ may not resolve itself soon

Interview with Farideh Farih – Council on Foreign Relations

[Nima: Within the complete version of the interview, you might notice that Farih provides a very high estimate of protestors turnout, I would like to point out that estimates are currently very rough, ranging from many hundreds of thousands at the peak, to over a million people.]

Mr. Ahmadinejad and his supporters have made it clear that they consider Mr. Rafsanjani to be the person who is trying to coordinate all the opposition forces against Mr. Ahmadinejad. During the campaign it was clear that Mr. Rafsanjani’s family is supportive of Mr. Mousavi. His daughter was participating in the campaign as well as in the demonstrations [after the election]. So at this time in Iran there is a sense among the population that Mr. Rafsanjani is a key player in pushing back this authoritarian tendency that has taken grip in Iran.  For the Iranian population to feel that Mr. Rafsanjani is still powerful enough to actually work behind the scenes in an effort to prevent complete domination of the state by the hard-liners is very important. And for them to get the news that his daughter and family members had been arrested was very disheartening, because it suggested that Mr. Rafsanjani did not have the kind of power that they presumed he has. This is very much part of the psychological game that is being played by both camps in Iran. But the ability of Mr. Rafsanjani to get his family out of prison in such a short period of time is itself a reflection that Mr. Rafsanjani continues to maintain his power and it’s not as easy as Ahmadinejad’s supporters think to contain his power.

 

Symbols are not enough to win this battle

Robert Fisk – The Independent

Relatives of Mirhossein Mousavi’s powerful ally Ali Akbar Rafsanjani are arrested then released; Mousavi is threatened with arrest by the Speaker of parliament; yet one of the most socially popular clerics and an ally of Mousavi, Mohamed Khatami, remains untouched.

Mousavi may have been a prime minister, but Khatami was a president. To touch Khatami would take away the future protection of Ahmadinejad. And the latter’s powerful political friend Ayatollah Yazdi, who would like to be the next Supreme Leader, is a threat to Khamenei. And while every bloodied body on the streets of Iran’s cities will now be declared a “terrorist’” by Ahmadinejad’s friends, it will be honoured by his enemies as a martyr.

Mousavi, to win, needs to organise his protest in a more coherent way, not make it up on the hoof. But does Khamenei have a longer-term plan than mere survival?

 

Momentum for change in Iran

Mahir Ali – ZNet

However, the fact that the potential alternative to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is personified by the former prime minister of the Islamic Republic who was considered close to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini serves as a reality check: a reminder that the present tussle is taking place within the context of the theocracy that replaced the Shah’s odious monarchy. The struggle against that regime [,the Monarchy,] was by no means an exclusively Islamist affair: its secular component encompassed a wide range of activists and intellectuals, from liberals to communists.

A substantial proportion of those who subsequently refused to bow to the supremacy of the clergy ended up dead. The remainder were incarcerated or exiled. Mir Hossein Mousavi shares the guilt in this context, notwithstanding the claim that throughout his tenure as prime minister, there were tensions between him and the then president, Ali Khamenei. Mousavi was effectively purged from the leadership after Khomeini’s demise, when Khamenei was elevated – beyond his competence, according to his many detractors – to the level of ayatollah and ensconced as Supreme Leader.

 

The Arabs watch Iran with forlorn envy

Rami G. Kouri – The Daily Star

You would think that Arab governments would be pleased to see Iran’s regime toppled, or tempered by its own people. Yet, if such change were to occur through street demonstrations choreographed via a web of digital communications, whispered messages, and rooftop religious chants in the middle of the night, autocratic Arab leaders would cringe – because they would sense in this their own vulnerability to similar mass political challenges. The fact is lost on no one that the Iranian regime has effectively withstood American, Israeli, European, and UN pressures, threats and sanctions for years, but found itself much more vulnerable to the spontaneous rebellion of many of its own citizens who felt degraded by the falsification of election results by the government.

(First published at Rabble.ca)

Iran’s political contest continues as the Guardian Council rules out annulment of the elections

Iran’s Guardian Council (profile below), charged with reviewing the election results, has ruled out the possibility of annuling the elections, a ruling that effectively maintains the contested president Ahmadinejad in his post following his landslide victory of June 12 that many believe was rigged. This ruling appears to close the door to the opposition pursuing a legal process of contesting the poll results.

“If a major breach occurs in an election, the Guardian Council may annul the votes that come out of a particular affected ballot box, polling station, district, or city like how it was done in the parliamentary elections,” said the spkesperson for the Guardian Council, Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei.

“Fortunately, in the recent presidential election we found no witness of major fraud or breach in the election. Therefore, there is no possibility of an annulment taking place,” he added.

On Tuesday, it was announced that a special court has been established to deal with protestors. AP reports that, “Ebrahim Raisi, a top judicial official, confirmed Tuesday that a special court has been set up to deal with detained protesters. “Elements of riots must be dealt with to set an example. The judiciary will do that,” he was quoted as saying by the state-run radio.”

Juan Cole, a historian on the Middle East, writes that:

“…as it developed in 1979-1980, the revolutionary Iranian regime has two wings. There is a sphere of clerical authority, represented by Khamenei, and a sphere of popular sovereignty, represented by the parliament and, later, the president. The clerical sphere includes not only Khamenei but also two collective bodies, the Guardianship Council and the Expediency Council (which has among other duties the charge of reconciling conflicts between the civil parliament and the Guardianship Council). The clerical sphere also includes the judiciary.”

He later adds:

“The election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 changed these dynamics, since his views overlapped in some areas with those of the clerical sphere. In essence, Iran moved closer to being a one-party state. By stealing the election for Ahmadinejad, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has effectively made a coup on behalf of the clerical sphere in alliance with lay hard liners, which threatens to virtually abolish the sphere of popular sovereignty. That is what Mousavi and Karroubi and their followers are objecting to so vehemently.”

Since the security crackdown in Tehran that resulted in the deaths of protestors, public demonstrations in central Tehran have shrunk in size due to fears of reprisal. However, despite extreme police measures, public opposition persists. Security forces retain a strong presence in the capital city, preventing people from gathering in large crowds.

The first part of a protestor’s account of Tehran on Monday:

“I am just back from 7 tir square where there was supposed to be a memorial for the 7th day of the martyrs.

“Drove down there at 4 ish. there were a lot of people in the square, but no one allowed to gather, so people were just walking up and down the meydoon (square). there was a HEAVY military presence — all kinds, basij, riot police, khahki (camouflage) uniformed ones — all on motorbikes, or in pick up trucks or standing — they ALL had those batons and weren’t allowing people to stand still (ie. gather). we walked around and tried to have a look from those walkways that cover the meydoon/square but the police were also on them so wouldn’t let u stand still for a second.

The voice of opposition was heard over Tehran, like other nights, as people shouted “God is great” from their rooftops. A video of this, alleged to be from Monday night, has been widely distributed online.

Information has been more difficult to come by regarding activities outside of Tehran, though the cities of Shiraz, Isfahan, Ahvaz, Tabriz, Ardabil, Rasht and Mashhad have had multiple reports of protests in the past week. A video has recently surfaced showing opposition activity in Tabriz, alleging that it took place this Monday night.

The violence and resulting deaths, widely shown in videos and photos from Saturday, appear to have hardened a number of the protestor’s opposition to the government. This has been compounded by their inability to seek redress through legal means, following the Guardian Council’s recent ruling in support of the polling process. Furthermore, many protests have taken on the character of mourning for those who have died during the past ten days of opposition.

Strikes have been called for this week. If widespread and sustained, this could prove to be an effective tactic. By simply not showing up to work, people have the potential of seriously disrupting business in the capital and the country. It remains to be seen how widespread strikes may be. An important commitment on strikes can come from the transport sector. If these workers strike, then many other people will have no access to their jobs due to a lack of transportation.

Former president Khatami’s Facebook page has called for silent protests around city bazaars (Farsi, rough English translation). The intent behind this being that these central markets would be slowed or even closed due to protests. Even if security forces use force to disperse crowds, the very use of force would disrupt business, and may dissuade shoppers from visiting. I believe that the strategy here is also to bring the opposition to within site of the bazaars in order to entangle the bazaaries in the situation, and perhaps draw them into their camp. The bazaaries are, as a collective, a powerful force of business, and they were very important as strikers and funders leading up to the 1979 revolution.

Since Saturday, security forces seem to have tried to, and often succeeded in, preventing opposition gatherings by setting up blockades to key meeting points. I expect that they will try to do the same around Tehran’s central bazaar in order to keep rallies from forming there.

Though the former president Rafsanjani, one of Iran’s most powerful and richest people, has not been very visible during this crisis, rumours persist of his activity in the background. Many believe that he has for days been meeting senior clerics in order to garner their support for the opposition. Protestors appear to have placed a lot of hope on this. Significant clerical opposition to supreme leader Khamenei’s statements in support of Ahmadinejad would prove to be a challenge that could not be ignored by the contested president nor by the supreme leader.

Rafsanjani did not appear at supreme leader Khamenei’s Friday sermon in Tehran.

The near invisible component of political maneuvering by Iran’s elite is an important factor in determining the outcome of this power struggle in the near future.

 

Guardian Council – a profile

The Guardian Council is composed of twelve members: six jurists that are nominated by the judiciary and approved by the majlis (parliament), as well as six theologians selected by the supreme leader. The Guardian Council is very significant in determining the course of politics within the country. It bar potential candidates from running for the presidency, majlis, the Assembly of Experts or in local councils. It also approves all bills that are passed by the majlis. This power is meant to ensure that legislation adheres to Islamic law and to the constitution. The council has ten days to deliberate but may request additional time if deemed necessary.

 

(First published at Rabble.ca)

Iran: Post-election news regularly updated

First published at Rabble.ca.

Political events in Iran continue to unfold following the June 12 presidential election. For the past week, I have tried to (and often failed to) keep up with the rapid-fire clips of news coming from Iran. This has been helpful, at least to me.

I wish to shift gears now, though, and contextualise the situation. It is helpful to have a play-by-play, but it’s also helpful to take a step back and have a look at certain things such as: what is the character of Iran’s contemporary and past culture, are the motivations of people being accurately portrayed, what is political life like within the country? Essentially, I believe much more analysis is needed, and that, at least in some cases, the core issues indigenous to Iran are perhaps increasingly being misunderstood.

So, I will from this point on suggest other people’s relevant analysis or write my own in future posts.

Regular updates and live blogs are available at a number of different sites following Iran’s post-election politics, such as on the Guardian’s blog, and at the Huffington Post. You can also review my past updates below, covering some of the events in the past week.

———-

Archive of previous updates: Week 1

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June 21, 4:26 pm (GMT -5 hours)

China’s Xinhua news reports that: “Four family members of Iran’s influential former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani have been released, but his daughter is still under custody, Iran’s satellite channel Press TV reported Sunday.”

June 21, 4:12 pm (GMT -5 hours)

Grand ayatollah Montazeri has declared three days of mourning in Iran. Tehran Bureau has a translation of his statement on their site. Also provided here, below:

In the name of God

We all come from Him and will go back to Him

The great and dignified Iranian nation:

With much sorrow I was informed that, during peaceful rallies to defend their lawful rights, the great Iranian people have been attacked [by the security forces], beaten, and bloodied, and killed. While expressing my condolences for this painful event and the losses, and feeling the pain of the nation, I declare Wednesday [June 24], Thursday and Friday days of national mourning. I express my strongest support for the Muslim nation [of Iran] in their defense of their rights in the framework of the Constitution that recognizes republicanism [direct and free elections, and respect for the votes] as one of the pillars of the [political] establishment, and declare that any action that would harm the republicanism of the system is not permitted [is against religion]. Every one of our religious brothers and sisters must help the nation in defending its lawful rights. Based on this principle, any resistance in this direction [against people who are defending their right], particularly use of violence, beating, and killing of [the people of] the nation is acting against the Islamic principle that the nation must decide its own fate and path and, therefore, I declare it to be religiously haraam [the worst sin].

Hossein Ali Montazeri

Unconfirmed reports are circulating from Iran of a rally to be held tomorrow in honour of those who have died in the past week of protests.

More images have been coming from Iran, some gory: photo 1, photo 2, photo 3, photo 4, photo 5, photo 6 (all uploaded by the same source). There is a photo of a policeman striking a car here (date unknown).

Below is alleged to be from protests on June 20.

(source: http://twitpic.com/815m8)

Below of unknown date, showing security forces:

(source: http://twitpic.com/8158f)

June 21, 2:21 pm (GMT -5 hours)

A reader, Simon Owens, has conducted an experiment to better understand the role of Twitter in disseminating information regarding Iran. You can read his short post here. Below is an excerpt:

“..if an Iranian protester tweets his experience, how many retweets should he expect to get?

“…Out of the 100 random tweets, each one was retweeted an average of 57.8 times. The tweet that received the highest volume of retweets had 311 retweets. The smallest had only 6 retweets. Most of the tweets I found had between 30 and 50 retweets.”

June 21, 2:05 pm (GMT -5 hours)

The Guardian’s blog, Comment is Free, has an interesting post on Iran, by Peter Beaumont. I found it a fair representation of the complexity of opinions found within the various political groups in Iran, reflecting the opinions of many of my Iranian friends, family, and acquaintance within and without the country who supported Ahmadinejad, Mousavi, another presidential candidate, or who did not vote in the June 12 election. Here is an excerpt:

“Visiting Iran last year to cover parliamentary elections, I discovered a country utterly at odds with most of its depictions. I found myself discussing the sociologist Durkheim with a classical record producer in a cinema-cafe and debating the political situation in Iraq’s Shia holy cities with a conservative mosque guard in southern Tehran. I sat with artists drinking bootleg vodka at a party and discussed the limits of personal freedom over the Islamic dress code with a liberal but headscarf-wearing teacher. Even the attitudes among supporters of President Ahmadinejad, whom I encountered in the countryside, were complex, confounding what I thought I knew. Iran, you see, makes a mockery of how the west would like to frame its reality.

“Which makes reading many of the views expressed in the west during Iran’s election crisis often baffling – I have struggled to recognise the place depicted.”

CNN points to a story from Iran’s Mehr news that quotes Tehran’s police chief as stating that the police have not been authorized to use firearms against protestors. In most cases that I’ve seen reported from those in Tehran, the Basij militia are the ones mainly accused of the worst violence, including shootings.

The following videos are alleged to be of protests taking place today in Tehran: video 1, video 2.

June 21, 12:49 pm (GMT -5 hours)

Al Jazeera has a short video report on rumours regarding political activity regarding the clerics in the religious city of Qom. Clerical support for either side would greatly help in the oppositing parties in the contest for power and influence. View the video here.

For those who would like more detailed information on the history of Iran leading up to the 1979 revolution, I highly recommend the following book: “Roots of Revolution“, by Nikki R. Keddie. It is an insightful analysis of the history, economics, and politics of Iran leading up to the Islamic revolution.

Unconfirmed reports continue to come in claiming a number of Iranian journalists are being arrested.

June 21, 12:08 pm (GMT -5 hours)

A video alleging to be of protests today in Tehran is available here.

A video of protestors throwing stones is available here. Another video, said to be from Saturday, is availabe here.

June 21, 11:51 am (GMT -5 hours)

I’ve quickly compiled a series of articles from media outlets around Iran in order to provide a very rough perspective from some of its neighbours (or at least from a handful of publications)

Turkey – Hurriyet – World divided on disputed Iran poll: “International opinion is roughly divided between the Western line – a pro-democratic stance that implies or levels criticism at Iran’s leadership – and economic allies, mostly among developing nations, that accept the election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.”

Egypt – Al-Ahram – Understanding Iran’s elections: “To even begin answering such a complex question we must look beyond customary platitudes. Some Ahmadinejad fans maintain that he was the “candidate of the poor”, the leader of the “rejectionist axis” in the region, and “the chief enemy of the US and Israel,” and that these are the factors that decided the election in his favour. However, such labels that play on the prevalent themes of his ideological rhetoric fail to supply a sufficiently objective analytical framework. Nor does the customary left-versus-right framework serve the purpose, given that all candidates were solid members and supporters of the establishment and that their ideological stances elude such ready-to-hand pegs; that the entire socio-political map in Iran is much more fluid.”

Egypt – Al-Ahram – Iran’s democratic upsure: “Regardless of their integrity, Iran’s elections — and even their aftermath — are the fundamental democratic and collective expression US hawks and Zionists fear most.”

Israel – Ha’aretz – Mousavi testing how far he can take Iran protests: “Mousavi’s actions have managed to show up Khamenei as being “the leader of one side” and an interested party, and therefore not an arbitrator. This is yet another significant challenge to the authority of the Islamic supreme leader”

Lebanon – The Daily Star - An iron fist won’t resolve the fact that Iranians have lost trust in their leaders: “The supreme leader has said that Ahmadinejad is the president of all Iranians, and that all citizens should therefore support him. But the duties of the governor and the governed go both ways: Iran’s leaders must also be responsive toward all Iranians.”

I will try and find more articles from the region later. Also, do send me any opinion pieces on Iran from the wider region (nima(at)nmaleki.com).

June 21, 10:53 am (GMT -5 hours)

The Twitter feed, mousavi1388, maintained by Mousavi’s supporters writes that, “GhalamNews (our newsagency) seems to be hacked. Please await further instructions.”

This image was just sent to me (it has no time stamp, so location/date unknown):

June 21, 10:17 am (GMT -5 hours)

A journalist from Iran has written a piece for IPS reviewing Saturday’s events in Tehran. Excerpt below:

“Protests continued at least until 9 p.m., with Iranian state television reporting a total of 13 deaths, while state radio said 19. There is no doubt that there are many more injured and arrested.”

June 21, 9:47 am (GMT -5 hours)

CNN reports that “Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki on Sunday disputed allegations of ballot irregularities in the presidential election, calling the possibility almost nonexistent.” Read the article here.

Photos said to be from yesterday’s events in Tehran are available here (people spreading sand to thwart security forces’ motorcycles), here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here (people spreading sand), here, here, here, here, here, and here. Most of these were uploaded by a single source.

Tehran Bureau also has images on its site.

Video claimed to be from yesterday in Tehran is available here, and here (shot from a rooftop)

June 21, 9:22 am (GMT -5 hours)

A recent video on YouTube claims that a Basij militia building in Iran was caught in an explosion after a natural gas line was set on fire. You can view it here.

Despite rumours circulating throughout the internet regarding the possible presence of the army, including tanks, in Tehran, most reliable eye witnesses on the ground deny this.

There seems to be no reliable estimate of the injured and dead from Saturday’s clashes in Tehran.

A collection of six videos from the unrest and opposition in Iran are available here. Another video, said to be from Saturday is available here, also here, and here.

Yesterday, a significant number of tweets from Iranians relayed links to first aid instructions, and pointers on how to deal with tear gas (in Farsi and English). This may in part have been a response to rumours that Basij militia were searching hospitals for opposition to the government.

The Telegraph has a short profile of Mousavi on its site, here.

Below is an image claimed to be from yesterday’s clashes in Tehran.

(source: http://twitpic.com/7y2eg)

June 21, 8:59 am (GMT -5 hours)

Grand ayatollah Montazeri, one of the leaders of the 1970 revolution, is said to have released a statement today, published on peykeiran.com. The date at the bottom of the release indicates it was written on June 25, however peykeiran.com has published it as a new release. It is available in Farsi here, as well as a very rough English version here.

June 21, 8:53 pm (GMT -5 hours)

Contested Iranian president Ahmadinejad tells the US and Britain not to interfered in the country’s internal affairs. Reuters reports on this.

“Definitely by hasty remarks you will not be placed in the circle of friendship with the Iranian nation. Therefore I advise you to correct your interfering stances,” Ahdmadinejad was quoted as saying in ISNA news.

June 21, 8:49 am (GMT -5 hours)

A Farsi and English version of Mousavi’s fifth statement is available here. An excerpt below:

“The great participation in this election was, in the first degree, indebted to the efforts for creating hope and trust among the people, to obtain a befitting response to the existing administrative crises and the widespread social dissatisfaction, whose accumulation can target the bedrock of the Revolution and the Regime. If this good faith and trust coming from the people is not answered by protecting their votes, or the people can not react in a civil and peaceful way to defend their rights, there will be dangerous pathways ahead, responsibility for which lies with those who can’t stand peaceful behaviors.”

June 21, 8:41 am (GMT -5 hours)

A statement by former Iranian president Khatami has been released today. You can read it in Farsi here. Google translate has a very rough English translation here.

June 21, 8:26 am (GMT -5 hours)

Rafsanjani’s daughter is said to have been arrested, according to Fars news. Rafsanjani chairs Iran’s Assembly of Experts (a body that can impeach the supreme leader), and is one of Iran’s most powerful political figures. Times of India reports the following:

“The daughter of Iran’s former president Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani and four relatives were arrested over their involvement in protests against alleged election fraud in Iran, the Fars news agency reported on Sunday.

“Faezeh Hashemi, a renowned women’s rights activist, former parliament deputy and head of women sports in Iran, has in the recent years emerged, like her father, as one of the main opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.”

An ABC news journalist, Lara Setrakian, tweets that, “BBC resident Tehran correspondent Jon Leyne, a friend and ace reporter, given 24 hours to leave.”

Multiple reports have come in that Mousavi and pro-Mousavi websites had been hacked today.

June 21, 7:56 am (GMT -5 hours)

Tension in Iran is at a new high following Saturday’s rise in violence in Tehran, where clashes between opposition demonstrators and security forces grew one day after a speech by the supreme leader Khamenei supporting Ahmadinejad as president, and asking an end to demonstrations.

Rumours were rife on Saturday, claiming the arrest of a number of influencial members of the Iran’s reformists, including former parilamentary (majlis) members. Other rumours are circulating regarding the activity of the Revolutionary Guard, and the army. The possible mobilization of the military seems to have become a particular concern of the opposition in Tehran.

Images said to be from Saturday are available in a number of archives, one of them here. The below image was uploaded to the internet by someone in Iran, claimed to be from Tehran on Saturday.

(source: http://twitpic.com/7y31j)

A video claimed to be from the city of Shiraz on Saturday, shows a demonstration that is broken up by security forces, view it here. The most prominent male voice, among saying many things, can be heard saying “don’t hit the old woman.”

June 21, 7:24 am (GMT – 5 hours)

Iran’s speaker of the parliament (majlis), Ali Larijani, on Saturday criticized some members of the powerful Guardian Council as biased. The Guardian Council supervises the election process and has more recently offered to conduct a partial recount of poll results.

Iran’s Press TV reports on this after Larijani was seen live on an IRIB channel 2 broadcast in Iran. Excerpt below:

“Larijani, however, believes that the Iranian people have lost their trust in the country’s legal system. “Although the Guardian Council is made up of religious individuals I wish certain members would not side with a certain presidential candidate.”

“The Guardian Council should use every possible means to build trust and convince the protesters that their complaints will be thoroughly looked into,” the parliament speaker added.”

June 21, 7:16 am (GMT -5 hours)

A video of some of the Saturday’s chaos in Tehran is available here. It is graphic, showing a dead man, and the grieving. Other videos claimed to be from yesterday’s upheaval in Tehran are available here, here

 

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Archive of previous updates: Week 1

Iran’s post-election political activity

I have not had any posts here for a few days. This is because of events in Iran, I’m writing several updates an hour on political events in Iran at Rabble.ca. My apologies for the momentary pause here. You can follow my writing on Iran here: http://tinyurl.com/km9hqk

Iran: updates of post-election events

I’m keeping an update of events in Iran. Posted at Rabble.ca >> > http://tinyurl.com/km9hqk”>http://tinyurl.com/km9hqk

Iran: more videos and photos of protests

The main political opponents, Mousavi and Karroubi, candidates in the 12 June presidential election against reaffirmed president Ahmadinejad, are under house arrest. Mousavi’s last statement challenged the election results as fraudulent. Many Iranian journalists are said to have been arrested. Telephone connection from Tehran to the rest of the country has been at least partially cut off. Internet connections are said to be erratic and police are looking out for satellite connections. Cell phones down. I’ve heard that electricity is getting cut off in certain parts of the capital. Police are in the streets.

From the university in the city of Shiraz, people yelling ‘death to the dictator.’

Violent protests in Iran: videos & photos

Following the Iranian presidential election in which Ahmadinejad was awarded victory according to the interior ministry, with almost 64% of the vote, people took to the streets in protest. Many are skeptical of the results. Mobile phone text messages have been taken off line, several news websites blocked, and at least one domestic paper shut down. Below are some videos and photos from Tehran.

From terhranlive.org, more photos there

Iran election: state media and interior ministry give Ahmadinejad presidency

Iran’s state media say that there was about an 80% electoral turnout, 36 million voters out of the 46 million eligible. They claim that 24 million votes went to Ahmadinejad and 9 million went to Mousavi.

The Interior Ministry in Iran has just released their updated numbers, saying they have counted 47% of ballots. Of those votes counted 64% are said to be for Ahmadinejad and 30% for Mousavi.

The speed with which these results are announced has caught many people off guard. The massive lead shown by the Interior Ministry is an incredible trouncing for Mousavi.

Iran elections update

Mousavi has claimed victory in the presidential election, and IRNA (state news channel) claims that Ahmadinejad is the clear winner. It’s only midnight on the day of elections in Iran and tens of millions showed up to vote (with estimates stating about 70% voter turnout).

It’s much too early to claim victory for anyone, so it’s quite unusual and suspicious that an unannounced press conference took place at the Interior Ministry claiming that Ahmadinejad had 69% of the votes after about 20% of the votes have been counted. The total for the other candidates didn’t make sense, their totals added up to over 100%. Providing this seemingly flawed count only hours after polls were closed has taken people by surprise.

These early counts are said to be from the countryside where Ahmadinejad is stronger.